As Italians continue their summer holidays (statistics released last week say 22 million Italians, that is, almost a third of the population, have chosen August for their vacations), there is one more obstacle to perfect happiness - along with some bad weather over this holiday weekend of Ferragosto (August 15th), mounting political instability and concern about this fall's economic situation: As of August 13th, in fact, the new and stricter Driving Code (Codice della Strada) took effect making it clear that officialdom would like to crack down on the worst of Italian driving defects, although how effective they will be remains to be seen.

If you read the papers, or listen to the TV news broadcasts, it would seem as if new elections or, at the very least, a cabinet re-shuffle, are inevitable in Italy. But are they?We will know more later today after the results of a no-confidence vote that the opposition has called against a member of the Berlusconi government. But although Silvio Berlusconi appears to be in a more vulnerable position than at any time since his party's victory at the polls in 2008, I wouldn't be counting him out any time soon. 

The no-confidence vote comes just a few days after a break between Berlusconi and his once chief ally, Gianfranco Fini, until 2009 the leader of  the right-wing Alleanza Nazionale and currently speaker of the Chamber of Deputies, the lower house of parliament.  (See "Il Divorzio: It's final!) Fini's new party , Future and Freedom for Italy, has joined with several other centrist groups that will abstain on the vote, an act that some view as an act of cowardice. But it gives Fini, who at the moment is under attack for the unclear origins of an apartment in Montecarlo where his girlfriend's younger brother is now living,  a chance to guage the current strenth of Berlusconi's now reduced parliamentary majority. He knows well his own status is risky - he can count on a total of only 43 MPs - and in fact has pledged loyalty to the government, asking AN exponents in the cabinet to vote with the Berlusconi government.

Still, today's events may affect political developments in Italy in the near future. Should Berlusconi lose today's vote (something I believe is not likely), he may decide to ask for new elections. Otherwise, tune in at the end of August, after millions of Italians, including members of the parliament and of the Government, will be back from their summer vacations. 

After months of very boring to- ing and fro-ing, the divorce between Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and his once principle ally, former Alleanza Nazionale chief Gianfranco Fini, currently Italy's Speaker of the House (presidente della Camera dei Deputati), now appears to be final and Italians, most of whom are understandably much more interested in a) their summer vacations, b) job opportunities and taxes in a struggling economy and 3) whether or not the national soccer team will ever recover from its embarrassing performance in South Africa, are now being told to worry about whether the government will fall or whether Berlusconi may call for early elections. If you read the papers, or listen to the TV news broadcasts, it would seem as if new elections or, at the very least, a cabinet re-shuffle, are inevitable. But are they? For although Silvio Berlusconi appears to be in a more vulnerable position than at any time since his party's victory at the polls in 2008, I wouldn't be counting him out any time soon. 

Anyway, here's the story. According to data released a couple of days ago by ISTAT, the Italian national statistics agency, in the last 13 years (no, I don't know why they chose 13 years as a reference point but there it is) have doubled and, what's more in 2008 the number of divorces rose by 3.4% and the number of legal separations by 7.3%. In 2008, there were 84.165 separations and 54.351 divorces. Put another way, that amounts to 179 divorces for every 1000 people and 286 legal separations although, as to be expected, the rate is twice as high in the Italian north than it is in the Mezzogiorno. Who knows what was going on in 2005 because in that year, the statistics tell us, there was a peak of

But that's not all. The data tell us that nowadays in Italy the length of the average marriage is 15 years, 18 years if you measure up to the time that a final divorce is granted. The average age fro those getting separated is at present 45 for men and 41 for women.

Curiously enough, fewer Italian marriages are breaking up before the five-year mark whereas longer ones are increasingly in trouble. In 1995, 24% of marriages ended before five years; today that has declined to 17% - still a hefty chunk). On the other hand, the number of marriages that end after ten years has doubled since 1995 and those lasting 25 years have tripled (there are no statistics on this, but how much do you want to bet that in the latter group it is mostly men seeking younger women?)

In most cases, the report adds, respectively 86.3% and 77.3%, the separations and divorces are consensual (or appear so). And in 78.8% of the dissolved marriages involving underage children the final solution involves joint custody. I would add that the statistics obviously do not take into account the huge number of couples who now live together without getting married at all although I suspect most of them (but by no means all) tie the knot after the bambini arrive.